Wholesale Dollar Falls but Remains Above $1.510 as Market Anticipates Greater Pressures

The wholesale dollar began September again under the market's attention. The currency remains low on the second day of the month, standing at $1.511, while the city starts to assess how much room the exchange rate will have to move in the coming weeks.

As for the retail exchange rate, at Banco Nación it operates at $1.485 for buying and $1.535 for selling. Meanwhile, the average conducted by the Central Bank (BCRA) is at $1.484.61 for buying and $1.535.14 for selling. Regarding the parallel rates, the MEP rises to $1.533.46, the CCL falls to $1.592.33, and the blue remains at $1.545.

On Monday, the demand for coverage and payments abroad intensified and pushed the wholesale quote to a maximum of $1.514, finally closing one peso below. This movement occurred after an August in which the dollar advanced 1.6%, or $23.50, ending at $1.508.50. Despite the increase, the exchange rate remains far from the upper limit of the band scheme: this Tuesday it was 24.3% below the ceiling of $1.881.22.

The dynamics of the last few weeks also showed a change in exchange rate management. After keeping the wholesale rate around $1.500 for several sessions, the Government allowed greater flexibility of the exchange rate, in parallel with a relaxation of interest rates in pesos. However, it continued to intervene through futures and dollar-linked instruments.

The first session of the month left another relevant signal: the Central Bank (BCRA) bought only u$s15 million in the official market, the lowest amount for a start of the month since the current reserve accumulation program began.

The figure was particularly low compared to the traded volume, which reached u$s671 million. Thus, the Central Bank absorbed only about 2% of the day's operations.

This data was known after August closed with the lowest monthly purchase balance of the year. Additionally, the USD 15 million was below the daily average of the previous month, which had been around USD 38 million. With this Tuesday's operation, the purchases accumulated by the BCRA during 2026 reached u$s14.110 million.

Gross reserves, however, had a much more pronounced movement: they increased by u$s1.948 million to u$s50.205 million and thus recovered the level of u$s50.000 million.

The jump was not explained by purchases made in the market or by a positive valuation effect, but mainly by the reversal of movements associated with the end of August. In fact, the fall in gold played in the opposite direction and would have reduced the value of the Central Bank's holdings by around USD 250 million.

Attention now focuses on the behavior of the dollar during September, a month that usually presents a lower seasonal demand for pesos. This is compounded by the purchase of currencies for savings during the first days of the month and payments related to card consumption abroad.

At the same time, the drop in interest rates in pesos introduces another variable. From Criteria, they pointed out that the improvement in liquidity began to transfer to the market, with the TAMAR below 25% nominal annual and a recovery of local curves.

A reduction in the yield of placements in local currency may contribute to decreasing the attractiveness of carry trade and favor a gradual dollarization of portfolios, especially as the market begins to incorporate the electoral scenario of 2027.

Federico Glustein expects that during September this process will begin to deepen. The greater amount of pesos may accompany the drop in rates but also generate a greater demand for dollar-linked assets.

Andrés Reschini from F2 Financial Solutions noted that a lower demand for pesos may correspond to a reduction in the supply of dollars. However, he does not currently see elements that allow for anticipating an abrupt jump and considers that the Government retains tools to smooth episodes of volatility.

For now, expectations remain anchored. Future dollar contracts reflect a wholesale exchange rate close to $1.534.50 for the end of September and approximately $1.615 for December.

The official strategy will continue to be one of the central variables. During August, the intervention was not limited to the futures market. Market sources estimated that the BCRA would have explained about 74% of the traded volume in the Lelink D30S6 during the session of August 26, prior to the fixing related to the expiration of D31G6.

The sales of the agency in that title would have reached approximately u$s430 million, on an initial position close to USD 500 million, which would have left the Central Bank with about u$s70 million remaining.

In financial dollars, meanwhile, the first session of September showed downward movements: the MEP closed at $1.532.71, while the cash with settlement was at $1.587.70. The blue fell to $1.545, reducing the gap with the wholesale rate to just over 2%.

The external scenario adds another risk factor. Criteria warned about the rise in yields of U.S. Treasury bonds and a more restrictive Federal Reserve in the face of inflation, factors that can increase volatility in emerging markets.

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