Wall Street Begins to Look Beyond Bitcoin's Decline

• Bitcoin ETFs received nearly $300 million in a single day.
• BlackRock maintains that the recent decline does not alter its investment thesis on bitcoin.

Bitcoin (BTC) continues to be far from its all-time highs, but the perspective that some of the main institutional players, such as BlackRock or VanEck, are starting to adopt no longer seems focused solely on the decline.

At the time of this publication, bitcoin is trading around $68,500, 46% below the all-time high of $126,000 reached in October 2025. Additionally, since early June, it has mainly remained between $58,000 and $66,500. Bitcoin is trading above $68,000. Source: TradingView.

However, while the price continues to stabilize in that range, institutional attention is beginning to shift towards what may happen after the correction.

BlackRock Does Not Change Its Thesis Due to the Decline {#h-blackrock-does-not-change-its-thesis-due-to-the-decline}

BlackRock analysts Will Su and Robert Mitchnick state in a report published in August that the recent correction fundamentally responded to a process of deleveraging and flow dynamics. Not to a deterioration of the properties that support their thesis on bitcoin.

<>, they explain.

According to the world's largest asset manager, the accumulation of speculative positions in perpetual futures made the market especially sensitive to liquidation cascades. This was compounded by a temporary slowdown in institutional flows and the shift of some capital towards other sectors, such as artificial intelligence.

For BlackRock, these movements do not alter the structural process of institutional adoption. The firm continues to view bitcoin as an emerging global monetary alternative and an asset capable of providing long-term diversification.

Their argument returns to a fundamental characteristic: the programmed supply of bitcoin versus fiat currencies whose quantity can expand. In this context, Su and Mitchnick believe that <>.

In their models for a traditional portfolio, BlackRock suggests moderate allocations of between 1% and 2% in BTC to balance risk and return.

VanEck Begins to See Conditions for Accumulation {#h-vaneck-begins-to-see-conditions-for-accumulation}

Patrick Bush, senior investment analyst, and Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, analyzed the market using 12 indicators gathered in their Bitcoin Capitulation Check model.

The reading is not that bitcoin has definitively found a bottom. As reported by CriptoNoticias, VanEck believes that several indicators show signs of capitulation (increased realized losses, a drop in supply in profit, and greater demand for protection through options) and that much of the selling pressure may have passed, gradually opening conditions for an accumulation phase.

The timing of the cycle also enters into their calculations. The three previous major bearish phases took, on average, 12.7 months from the peak to reach their greatest decline. Bitcoin is currently around the eleventh month since the record in October, so the firm identifies between September and November as a possible transition window.

There is a supply movement accompanying this analysis. Over the last 30 days, the amount of BTC held for more than a year decreased by approximately 356,000 coins, down to 11.84 million units of the asset.
Bitcoin holdings by age group. Source: VanEck

This means that coins that had been inactive for long periods are returning to the market. The question now is whether sufficient demand appears to absorb that supply and transform the redistribution into accumulation.

A first signal is beginning to emerge on that front. On the other hand, the apparent demand for bitcoin in the spot market is close to returning to positive territory for the first time since February.
The apparent demand for bitcoin accumulated over 30 days is approaching positive territory again. Source: CryptoQuant.

The chart shows the evolution of the apparent accumulated demand over 30 days. The green areas correspond to periods of positive demand, while the red areas indicate times when contraction prevailed.

The most recent signal is on the far right: after a sharp decline during June and July, negative demand began to decrease rapidly and is approaching the equilibrium point again.

This does not yet equate to a sustained expansion of purchases. However, it shows that one of the forces accompanying the price weakness is losing intensity.

The background provides another reference. When this indicator previously returned to positive territory, bitcoin recorded a median gain of 18.1% over the following 60 days, with positive results in 78% of the analyzed cases. With depressed valuations like the current ones, that historical proportion rose to 87%.

This is not a projection of future performance, but it helps explain why the recovery of demand is starting to gain relevance for those observing the correction from an investment perspective.

Money begins to accompany this reading {#h-el-dinero-empieza-a-acompanar-esa-lectura}

The position of the managers would only be a market interpretation if the flows continued to move away from bitcoin. Recent data is beginning to show something different.

The spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States recorded nearly $300 million in net inflows on Monday, the largest positive day since May 5.
On Monday, August 17, U.S. ETFs recorded their largest daily net capital inflow in over three months. Source: SoSoValue.

One day does not establish a trend. However, the movement becomes relevant because it partially reverses one of the factors that BlackRock identifies behind the correction: the loss of momentum of institutional flows.

Thus, the distance between price behavior and institutional vision is starting to become more interesting than trying to anticipate exactly where the bottom will be.

VanEck observes an advanced correction and conditions that could favor an accumulation phase. BlackRock interprets the decline as a market adjustment without changes to its long-term thesis. And the ETFs are beginning to attract capital again.

Wall Street is still not confirming that the recovery has begun. It is doing something prior: it starts to find reasons to look beyond the decline while bitcoin continues to trade at almost half its all-time high.

Tags: Bitcoin (BTC) Latest Prices and Trading