Viewpoint: Bitcoin May See a Gold-Driven Rally, but the Time Window Is Shrinking

BlockBeats News, October 23rd, David Grider, Partner at Finality Capital Partners and former Head of Research at Grayscale, posted on social media that as of 2025, gold has outperformed Bitcoin significantly. Similar situations have only occurred twice in the past eight years—2018 and 2022—both of which were bearish cycles in the crypto market.

The market generally expects Bitcoin to follow the parabolic rise of gold and reach the $170,000 mark by the end of the year. We agree with CrossBorder Capital's view that gold has a significant impact on Bitcoin's price. After all, both are deeply influenced by global liquidity, but risk appetite and geopolitical factors also play a crucial role.

From a data modeling perspective, CrossBorder Capital's analysis indicates that gold and Bitcoin show a short-term negative correlation, but maintain a long-term positive correlation—typically taking 8-9 weeks for gold price increases to transmit to Bitcoin.

Overall, we believe that Bitcoin's catch-up trade offers a better risk-return ratio in most periods. However, if a catch-up rally primarily driven by liquidity/money devaluation is to occur, it must be initiated soon. Otherwise, the current correlation between gold and Bitcoin may break due to geopolitical and risk appetite factors. As seen at the beginning of 2022, during the bear market initiation when gold rose and Bitcoin fell amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict.