Don't Just Focus on the Fed! Coin Metrics Reveals the Real 'Turning Point Code' for Bitcoin: Non-Farm Payrolls Have the Biggest Impact, Core CPI is More Persistent

The market often views the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate decisions as the most important macroeconomic trigger for Bitcoin, but Coin Metrics' latest research has reached a different conclusion: if we only look at the first 30 minutes after news is released, the real factor that can suddenly change BTC's direction is actually the U.S. employment data.

In its report "Bitcoin's Shifting Macro Identity" released on September 8, Coin Metrics compared Bitcoin's volatility around non-farm employment, the Core Consumer Price Index (Core CPI), and FOMC decisions from January 2025 to September 2026. The results showed that in the first 30 minutes after the employment report was released, the median absolute price change of BTC was about twice that of typical non-event periods; Core CPI followed closely behind, at about 1.8 times. In contrast, the FOMC interest rate decisions, which the market pays the most attention to, showed volatility that remained roughly around normal benchmarks during both observation periods.

Non-Farm Payrolls Ignite the Market, CPI Determines How Far It Goes

This does not mean that CPI is unimportant.

Coin Metrics specifically pointed out that while the employment report brings the largest immediate price shock, the impact of Core CPI is more persistent. The reason is that employment numbers quickly change the market's judgment on whether the economy is overheating and whether the Fed still has room to raise rates; inflation data directly influences real interest rates and the path of monetary policy, so price revaluation often lasts longer.

In other words, if you ask, "Which data is most likely to push BTC in a direction within half an hour?" the answer is currently non-farm employment; but if you ask which data is more likely to lead the market to reassess the interest rate path for the coming weeks, the importance of Core CPI may not be lower than that of non-farm payrolls.

As for why the FOMC decision did not turn out to be as dramatic as expected, a reasonable explanation is that interest rate decisions are often priced in gradually by prior employment data, CPI, official statements, and interest rate futures. The real price shock may have already occurred before the Fed officially announced it.

One Non-Farm Report, BTC Drops 2.32% in Half an Hour

The U.S. employment report released on September 4 is the most vivid example.

The U.S. non-farm payrolls added 162,000 jobs in August, significantly higher than the market's initial estimate of about 56,000; the strong numbers quickly raised market expectations for a Fed rate hike. According to Reuters, after the data was released, the market pushed the probability of a rate hike in September to about 60%.

Coin Metrics statistics show that BTC fell by 2.32% within 30 minutes after the data was released, a magnitude approximately six times that of a typical non-farm reaction in 30 minutes.

The derivatives market also saw a simultaneous deleveraging: BTC open interest contracts fell by about 3% within half an hour, with long positions liquidated at about $119 million, while shorts were only about $24 million, a ratio close to 5:1. This also illustrates that macro data often serves merely as an "igniter"; what truly determines whether the downward trend can rapidly expand is how much leverage the market has accumulated at that time.

A Bigger Change: BTC is Starting to Look Less Like Tech Stocks and More Like Gold

More noteworthy than short-term event volatility is the changing relationship between Bitcoin and traditional assets.

Coin Metrics' latest data shows that the 90-day return correlation coefficient between BTC and gold has risen to +0.56, the highest since 2020; at the same time, the correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 as well as the U.S. dollar has dropped to nearly zero.

This stands in stark contrast to the past market perception of BTC as a "high beta tech stock."

Coin Metrics believes that recently, Bitcoin and gold have begun to be driven by similar macro forces, including concerns about monetary purchasing power, government debt, fiscal deficits, and trends in real interest rates. When the market worries about fiat currency depreciation and sovereign debt issues, both scarce assets are more likely to trade in the same direction.

This situation is not unprecedented. After the massive monetary and fiscal stimulus following the pandemic in 2020, and during the U.S. regional banking crisis in 2023, BTC and gold both converged due to liquidity and financial system risks.

However, +0.56 does not mean that Bitcoin has permanently become "digital gold." The correlation coefficient is a rolling indicator that can change rapidly with market conditions; Coin Metrics' past research has also shown that Bitcoin can switch back and forth between the roles of "tech stock/risk asset" and "scarce monetary asset" across different cycles.

Therefore, a more accurate statement than "BTC has decoupled from the Nasdaq" should be: Bitcoin is currently in a macro trading regime that leans more towards gold rather than tech stocks.

The Next Real Stress Test: CPI Before the Fed

This market structure will soon face its next test.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to release the August CPI on September 11 at 8:30 AM Eastern Time, while the Fed will hold its FOMC meeting from September 15 to 16.

Coin Metrics' historical data suggests that the market should not just wait for the interest rate answer on September 16.

If the Core CPI is higher than expected, the market may first raise expectations for rate hikes and real interest rates, putting pressure on both BTC and gold; conversely, if core inflation cools, the hawkish repricing brought by employment data may be partially reversed.

What truly needs to be observed is not a single FOMC statement, but a complete transmission chain: non-farm changes interest rate expectations → CPI confirms or denies this expectation → bond yields and the dollar are repriced → FOMC ultimately confirms the policy path.

According to Coin Metrics' latest research, Bitcoin is no longer just waiting for the Fed to "announce the answer." The market's biggest turning point often begins before the answer is announced.

And with the correlation between BTC and gold rising to 0.56 and its correlation with the Nasdaq nearing zero, the upcoming CPI and FOMC in September will be a critical test: is Bitcoin merely temporarily bidding farewell to tech stocks, or is it truly returning to the "digital gold" trading logic?

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