Crypto May Be in a Very Good Selective Buying Window

The risks in the crypto market remain, but some quality assets are showing favorable odds, possibly ushering in a selective layout window.

Written by: Jiayi

Recently, there was a piece of news that I believe the market has not fully grasped its importance. I want to emphasize it again. Coinbase and Better are truly integrating crypto mortgages into the U.S. housing finance system. Eligible homebuyers can use their Bitcoin as collateral to obtain down payment loans without having to sell their BTC first. Moreover, a decline in BTC prices alone will not trigger a margin call. Once the loan is paid off, the collateralized BTC will be returned.

The significance of this goes far beyond just a new mortgage product.

The U.S. financial system's understanding of crypto has evolved from ignoring it ---- to viewing it as a scam ---- to seeing it as a speculative asset that can be bought and sold ---- and now, gradually, it is becoming a capital that can be collateralized, borrowed against, and connected with real-world assets.

However, this news has not catalyzed the market significantly.

This is also one of the reasons I have recently started to take crypto seriously again:

The fundamentals of crypto may be undergoing changes that are more significant than price fluctuations. The premium on assets comes from the opportunities for catalysts, and I believe this opportunity is getting closer, waiting for an explosion.

I don’t know if the market has already bottomed out.

I also don’t believe that a bull market is necessarily around the corner. Nor do I think that if a token has dropped 90%, it should automatically rebound.

Recently, I have been learning finance from scratch through AI, so my investment logic is: given today’s price, how much downside do I have? How significant is the potential upside? How long might I need to wait? What level of volatility do I have to endure? And can this project survive until it is revalued?

From this perspective, I believe that some quality crypto assets have already entered a very attractive range of odds compared to the past few years.

This is a payoff call. I am calling for those assets that have dropped for so long and still have considerable potential, which have now reached a very favorable fundamental valuation.

So I have started to re-enter the market.

Much of the downside has already been released in the previous bear market.

Bitcoin has retraced more than 50% from its peak in 2025, and many altcoins have dropped by 80%, 90%, or even more.

The market has gone through a long period of deleveraging, capital outflows, valuation compression, and a collapse of confidence. Many people are no longer willing to look at crypto, believing that this market has been underperforming for a while and will not have any opportunities in the future.

Some projects indeed deserve to drop. Some projects lack real products, users, and only have token incentives and narratives. Others are unlikely to ever return to their historical highs.

Thus, the asset characteristics I am currently focusing on are: Price collapsed. Fundamentals did not. The price has collapsed, but the fundamentals remain strong.

For these assets, the previous bear market has released a significant portion of the downside, but once revalued in the future, the upside remains substantial.

This is where the odds become very cost-effective.

In early 2026, crypto ETFs did experience continuous capital outflows. But that was the result of the previous market conditions.

Recently, Bitcoin ETFs have seen a return of continuous positive inflows, accumulating nearly $2 billion over five trading days. Institutions have certainly not fully and massively returned, but at least they have shifted from continuous withdrawal to tentatively testing this market.

Funds have just begun to return, but market confidence has not yet returned.

I am currently focusing on four types of opportunities.

The first type is the direction that large funds and financial institutions in the U.S. are genuinely paying attention to, using, or building positions in.

The second type is undervalued projects within these important sectors. That is, better cost-performance dragons or dragon three.

When all attention is focused on one leading project, its valuation may already include a lot of expectations. However, within the same sector, some projects already have their own users, products, and survival capabilities, and the gap in fundamentals is not as large as the valuation gap.

The third type is projects that have already achieved product-market fit (PMF), have real cash flow, and do not need to continuously sell tokens to survive.

I will no longer pay for pure narratives.

Those products that users genuinely need and are willing to use repeatedly, and that can generate revenue themselves. The entrepreneurial direction that crypto should have, as I have been advocating since 2018, is increasingly being recognized.

Of course, a good product does not necessarily correspond to a good token. A project making money does not mean that token holders will necessarily gain value. However, I keep my distance from projects that cannot operate healthily without relying on token sales to sustain their teams. I also cannot compete with the market makers.

The fourth type is assets that have clear revaluation drivers in the future.

These drivers may come from AI, U.S. politics and policies, stablecoins, tokenization, global trading, collateralized lending, or platforms that can enhance global capital efficiency.

The revaluation of asset valuations comes from the underlying value of the assets themselves, and the key for high multiple pricing (price increase) still depends on the driving force of opportunities. Therefore, in addition to the business itself, we also need to consider the concepts of future drivers. This is not much different from the short-term meme logic.

It is cheap enough today, and there are very clear reasons for it to be revalued tomorrow.

Good odds do not mean that the risks in crypto have disappeared.

Even quality altcoins may still drop by 30% or even 50%. The macro environment may deteriorate again, policies may be delayed, ETF funds may flow out again, and the fundamentals of a project may also change.

But volatility and permanent loss are not the same thing.

If a project has strong survival capabilities, its original logic has not been destroyed, and there is a reasonable upside potential of several times, then the intermediate volatility may be a cost worth bearing.

High payoff does not mean low risk. It means the potential reward increasingly compensates for the remaining risk.

Good odds do not mean there are no risks. It only means that today’s potential returns are starting to increasingly compensate for the risks I am taking.

This is not a choice between AI and crypto.

In the past period, many people’s funds and attention have shifted from crypto to U.S. stocks and AI. This is completely understandable.

AI is creating tremendous productivity and new company value, and U.S. stocks still hold some of the best assets in the world.

However, seeing one opportunity should not make us lose the ability to see another opportunity.

I do not need crypto to be necessarily better than AI.

I also do not need U.S. stocks to fall for crypto to rise.

AI is great, U.S. stocks are great, and crypto can also be great.

Different asset classes can simultaneously present opportunities; they simply offer different prices and payoffs at different times.

I have never felt that investing requires taking sides.

There is no need to deny the value of U.S. stocks and AI just because I am a crypto practitioner; nor do I need to suddenly believe that there is nothing worth investing in this industry just because crypto has underperformed recently.

Investment is only loyal to opportunity.