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    3. Casas Bahia in RJ: What Analysts Say About BHIA3

    Casas Bahia in RJ: What Analysts Say About BHIA3

    By: blocktrends.com.br|2026/08/18 15:32:18
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    What is Happening with Casas Bahia

    Casas Bahia has filed for bankruptcy protection, and the market reacted predictably: it fell off the radar. Among the major banks and brokerages that were tracking BHIA3, most have either ceased active coverage or placed their recommendations under review. Those who maintained their analysis continue to classify it as a sell.

    Goldman Sachs stopped covering the stock after the bankruptcy filing. The previous recommendation was already a sell, with a target price of R$ 1. XP Investimentos took a similar path: after weak results in the second quarter of 2026 and amid uncertainty about operational continuity, it placed its recommendation and target price "under review."

    Itaú BBA also ended its active coverage. The last published recommendation was neutral, with a target price of R$ 1 for the end of 2027. In practice, when three significant firms stop covering a stock simultaneously, the signal is clear: the risk has become too great to model.

    Who Maintained Coverage and What They Say

    Morgan Stanley continues with a sell recommendation and a target price of R$ 1.25. With the stock trading at R$ 0.44 at the last close, this would represent a theoretical increase of 184%. But don’t be misled by the percentage. When a stock trades below R$ 1, large percentage fluctuations are common and say little about the investment thesis.

    Safra also maintained its below-average performance rating, equivalent to a sell, with a target price of R$ 1.20 in 12 months. The bank highlighted that the company cited liquidity constraints and failed financing alternatives as reasons for the bankruptcy filing. The company claims it intends to maintain physical and digital operations during the reorganization.

    For those following the Brazilian financial market, the pattern is familiar. Companies in bankruptcy protection often maintain promises of continuity, but the history of judicial recoveries in Brazilian retail is not exactly encouraging.

    The Restructuring Plan and Its Limits

    Renato Franklin, CEO of the group, stated that the bankruptcy protection is part of a broader reorganization of liabilities. The bankruptcy filing occurs in parallel with the second phase of the so-called Transformation Plan, which aims to resize the company to a scale compatible with its actual capacity to generate returns.

    The first concrete measure announced was the closure of 298 underperforming stores, equivalent to about 30% of the unit base. The company also projects a structural reduction in costs and expenses. The strategy represents a reversal of priorities: instead of seeking sales growth at any cost, the company wants to concentrate resources on activities that generate the most cash.

    In theory, this makes sense. In practice, as highlighted by Safra in its report, the implementation of the plan occurs in a highly uncertain environment. The bankruptcy adds complexity to debt renegotiation and, especially, to preserving relationships with suppliers and creditors. Without suppliers willing to extend credit, retail operations become unfeasible even with stores open.

    Why This Matters Beyond BHIA3

    The case of Casas Bahia is not an isolated event. It is the most visible symptom of a cycle that has affected Brazilian retail as a whole. The combination of high interest rates, accumulated debt from years of aggressive expansion, and changes in consumption habits has created a hostile environment for traditional retailers. As we have discussed in the finance section of BlockTrends, the cost of capital in Brazil remains among the highest in the world, and leveraged companies are the first to feel the impact.

    For individual investors, this episode serves as a practical reminder of risk management. Stocks trading below R$ 1, the so-called penny stocks, have reduced liquidity, extreme volatility, and a risk of severe dilution during restructuring processes. In bankruptcy recoveries, common shareholders are usually the last in line.

    The closure of 30% of the stores also has a real impact on the economy. Thousands of direct and indirect jobs are affected, in addition to the supply chain that depended on the network's purchasing volume. The dynamics of Brazilian retail in 2026 show that scale without profitability is a trap that exacts its price sooner or later.

    What is the Most Likely Scenario for BHIA3

    Without a crystal ball and without making price predictions, it is possible to map scenarios based on what has happened in similar cases. Retail companies that entered bankruptcy protection in Brazil in recent years have undergone significant shareholder dilution, debt renegotiation with substantial discounts for creditors, and, in some cases, conversion of debt into equity, which drastically reduces the participation of original shareholders.

    The fact that most analysts chose to end coverage or suspend recommendations suggests that conventional valuation models have ceased to work for the stock. When Goldman Sachs, which already had a sell recommendation with a target of R$ 1, decides to stop covering, the message is that the degree of uncertainty has surpassed what can be priced.

    For those already holding positions in BHIA3, the moment calls for a cold analysis. For those on the outside, the market consensus is quite clear. Bankruptcy protection may save the operation of Casas Bahia as a company, but saving the company and saving the investment of the shareholder are very different things.

    This content is provided for general informational purposes only and doesn't constitute financial, investment, legal, or tax advice. Any events, rewards, online promotions, or related information mentioned herein should not be considered a recommendation, solicitation, or invitation to purchase, sell, trade, or otherwise deal in any crypto assets. Crypto assets are highly volatile and may result in loss. The availability of WEEX services, products, and related events may vary by region. You are responsible for ensuring that your participation is in accordance with applicable local laws and regulations.

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    Contents

    What is Happening with Casas Bahia
    Who Maintained Coverage and What They Say
    The Restructuring Plan and Its Limits
    Why This Matters Beyond BHIA3
    What is the Most Likely Scenario for BHIA3

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