Bank of America Predicts 21% QoQ Increase in DRAM Prices for Q3

According to a global research report by Bank of America, the newly negotiated DRAM contract prices for the third quarter have exceeded market expectations. Server DRAM prices are expected to rise by 20% to 30% quarter-on-quarter, primarily driven by high-speed LPDDR5, surpassing the market's previous forecast of no more than 20%. Strong spot demand has led to continued quarter-on-quarter increases in commodity DDR5 and traditional DDR4 prices in July, while recent orders for high-priced HBM4 have increased, and the proportion of lower-priced HBM3E orders has decreased. The report notes that DRAM sales covered by long-term supply agreements account for less than 50%, while non-long-term agreement sales make up about 60% to 70%; even under long-term agreements, some orders have already confirmed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5% to 10%. Some OEM manufacturers are accelerating their orders, indicating that the quarter-on-quarter price increases for both DRAM and NAND may exceed 20%. Bank of America expects the global average selling price of DRAM to increase by 21% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter, higher than TrendForce's forecast of a 13% to 18% increase for traditional DRAM, and an 8% to 13% increase when including HBM.

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