Analyst: Macroeconomic pressures have caused Bitcoin to fall below $79,000, but outflows from the fixed income market may provide medium-term benefits

Cryptocurrency analyst Marcel Pechman stated that Bitcoin rapidly fell back after being rejected at $82,000 on Friday, dropping below $79,000. The movement is highly synchronized with the U.S. small-cap stock index, indicating that macro factors are the main driving force behind this round of decline. The Russell 2000 index, which covers small and medium-sized enterprises, has a higher capital cost and is more sensitive to interest rate trends. The high correlation between Bitcoin and this index suggests that the market currently characterizes Bitcoin as a risk asset rather than a safe-haven tool.

The funding rate for Bitcoin perpetual contracts briefly turned deeply negative on Thursday and remained close to 0% on Friday, with continued absence of long leverage demand—this indicator has been below the neutral threshold of 6% for several weeks. Multiple attempts to breach $82,000 have failed to boost market confidence. Macro pressures have been piling up: the outcome of the U.S.-China summit disappointed the market, with no specific tariff agreements reached aside from a commitment to accelerate U.S. agricultural exports over the next three years; meanwhile, the ongoing war in Iran continues to weigh on market sentiment, with Brent crude oil prices jumping from $99 to $106 in the past week, further exacerbating inflationary pressures.

Additionally, the inflation-adjusted Shiller price-to-earnings ratio shows that the S&P 500 index is currently only about 5% lower than its peak during the internet bubble in January 2000, indicating a significant contraction in overall market risk appetite. However, the massive sell-off in the fixed income market may provide mid-term support for Bitcoin. The yield on Japan's 10-year government bonds has risen to its highest level in over 20 years, while the yield on the Eurozone's 10-year government bonds has also surged to 3.18%, a 15-year high. Analysts believe that in response to recession risks, central banks may be forced to inject liquidity, and funds flowing out of fixed income may ultimately seek other asset allocations, with Bitcoin likely to benefit from this.

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