Analysis: Bitcoin buying pressure is returning, and a breakthrough above $78,000 is needed to reverse the downtrend

According to Cointelegraph, CryptoQuant data shows that as the demand for Bitcoin derivatives rebounds, the net buying volume of Bitcoin indicates that buyers are entering the market. Net buying volume is an indicator of the imbalance of power between active buyers and sellers in the derivatives market, and it has remained positive since the outbreak of the US-Iran war. This positive trend aligns with the recent rise in Bitcoin's price to $74,000, indicating that demand in the derivatives market has returned.

Coinbureau CEO Nic added, "This shows that the buying volume has surpassed the selling volume, and buyers are taking control of the market." TradingView data shows that Bitcoin has been consolidating in the $62,000 to $72,000 range for over four weeks, with multiple attempts to break through $70,000 failing. From a more macro perspective, the BTC price remains between the realized price (the average purchase cost of all circulating supply at $54,400) and the true market average price (the cost basis of actively traded coins at $78,000). Glassnode stated, "In the absence of broader macro headwinds, this range may support a bear market relief rally, with its upper limit constrained by the true market average price."

Charts show that the BTC price has spent most of 2023 between these two cost levels, with relief rallies frequently stalling near the true market average price. Ultimately, in October 2023, with the announcement of the approval of the US spot Bitcoin ETF, the price broke through. Crypto trader and analyst Titan stated that if the BTC price breaks through the $78,000--$80,000 range, it could signal a change in the long-term trend.