30-Year Treasury Yield Reaches 5.31%, Increasing Opportunity Cost of Bitcoin

The yield on the U.S. 30-year Treasury bond has reached 5.31%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing assets like Bitcoin (BTC). The yield on the 10-year bond also rose from 4.695% to 4.725%. Factors contributing to the rise in long-term rates include tensions in the Middle East, rising Brent crude prices, and the burden of long-term Treasury supply. For Korean investors, the funding environment surrounding Bitcoin is crucial, as rising Treasury yields lead to a greater opportunity cost when holding assets that do not generate cash flow. Galaxy stated that the Bitcoin weakness in June was driven by macro pressures and capital flows. At the end of June, Bitcoin closed at approximately $58,700, about 53% lower than its peak in 2025. The total value locked in decentralized finance (DeFi) lending remains around $39.9 billion, but the credit market continues to face challenges. In June, there was a monthly net outflow of about $4.5 billion from U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, with large holders absorbing over 270,000 BTC. On the 17th, Bitcoin recorded an intraday high of $64,610.01, with trading flows observed in the $64,000 range. While lowered expectations for interest rate hikes have positively impacted some risk assets, tensions between the U.S. and Iran and regulatory delays have limited the extent of the increase. Moving forward, the burden on Bitcoin and the crypto credit market is expected to vary based on ETF capital flows, DeFi lending total value locked (TVL), and levels of long-term interest rates.

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